Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are the biggest night of my year. It's the awards show that a movie junkie like me gears up for for months in advance. There are sports fans out there who spend all football/baseball/hockey season breaking down teams and players and making predictions on who will go to the Superbowl. Me? I do the same thing for movies and the Oscars. Awards season is an adrenaline rush. I follow the nominations, the smaller awards shows, pay attention to the statistics (only 3 movies have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nom!), devour any Oscar-related article, track the momentum of each nominee, and work out the odds of who will go home with an Academy Award.

I watch the show for the fashion and host, sure. But I've also got my ballot in hand for each category (the one I spend hours agonizing over) and I sit, knee bouncing nervously, for the announcement of the winner... Best Picture or Best Animated Short, the weight of the category is the same to me. I don't always get to see every movie nominated, but I do my absolute best.

Basically, the Oscars are a BIG DEAL. And so, with the Big Night looming nigh, I figured I'd release my predictions to the general public. I'm not an expert by any means, and some of this is just my gut, but know that a lot of research and late nights went into this. I usually have about a 70% accuracy. This year's race is one of the most wide-open in recent memory. So far, the previous awards show winners are all over the place, and not as consistent as usual. This all makes for a very exciting (though stressful) show. So, without further ado...


(My picks will be in bold, with an explanation below the category.)

Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I'm going with Argo here as the frontrunner. First, it was my favorite of the bunch (though I haven't yet seen Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, or Django Unchained). Ben Affleck did an outstanding job blending a historical drama and an intense thriller with a fair amount of dark comedy, and he did it so smoothly. It's an incredible movie. After shooting out of the gate in the frontrunner position months ago, Argo was losing momentum as Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, and Silver Linings Playbook hit theaters. But the Academy's snub of Ben Affleck in the directing category has given Argo its mojo back, and its won almost every major award leading up to the Oscars. Lincoln is a close second, but I think Argo will hold onto the lead.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

It's a lock. There's no point in betting against Daniel Day-Lewis. He made a brilliant transformation and he's going to walk home with his third statue.

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

This is a tough category. Personally, Naomi Watts was my favorite of the lot. She put everything into her performance in The Impossible, and it was heartbreaking. But that movie didn't receive much Academy love, and so I think it's JLaw's to lose. She was a powerhouse in Silver Linings Playbook, and while Jessica Chastain could give her a run for her money, Ms. Lawrence has won almost every award leading up to Sunday.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

THIS is the most unpredictable category, by far. Tommy Lee Jones was superb, and Christoph Waltz and Philip Seymour Hoffman have earned raves (and awards) for their performances. But the word on the street is that De Niro has the edge--he hasn't been nominated in 21 years, and this was the first movie in a long time that reminded us why he's so great. Call him the "comeback kid", for lack of better phrasing.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Sally Field is getting a lot of votes, I'm sure, but Anne Hathaway's gut-wrenching, one continuous shot performance of "Dreamed a Dream" made her 23 minutes of screen time unforgettable.

Best Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

This category has gotten the most buzz, since the three that everyone believed to be frontrunners (Ben Affleck, Katherine Bigelow, and Tom Hooper) were snubbed. Ang Lee has a shot (Life of Pi was considered an unfilmable novel), but Steven Spielberg has been touted as the "underdog", unbelievable as that may sound. The guy managed to make the vote for the 13th Amendment an edge-of-your-seat nail-biter, and he deserves the accolades for it.

Best Original Screenplay
Amour, Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Flight, John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

For the past few weeks, I thought for sure it was going to be Zero Dark Thirty. Mark Boal's intensive research is widely renowned. But Tarantino has a lot of backing, and with Django sure to lose in most other categories, this is where it will likely reap its reward. However, don't throw out Amour... it has the possibility for an upset.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo, Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin,
Life of Pi, David Magee
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

Tony Kushner is the "should win" nominee for this one. Lincoln was a history lesson, but an eloquent one at that. And he managed to truncate one massive book into a gripping screenplay. But Argo has recently gained so much momentum that it has become the one to beat.

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

Though the Academy usually goes for Pixar's latest, Brave didn't receive the rave reviews of its predecessors, leaving the race open for Wreck-It Ralph (a creative, fun win for Disney animation) to win the Oscar.

Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins

Where Life of Pi likely won't win many of the "big awards", it's a visual masterpiece and will sweep many of the technical categories.

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood

Tepid reviews, beautiful costumes. Although Les Misérables could be a dark horse.

Best Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

I only know what the stats tell me here... Searching for Sugar Man is out in front.

Best Documentary Short
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

Again, I haven't seen any of these, Open Heart is the leader.

Best Film Editing
Argo, William Goldenberg
Life of Pi, Tim Squyres
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
Zero Dark Thirty, Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

William Goldenberg is nominated for two films here... a pretty cool fact to note. But mixing humor, tension, and thrill in Argo and making it work is the sign of fantastic film editing.

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour, Austria
Kon-Tiki, Norway
No, Chile
A Royal Affair, Denmark
War Witch, Canada

No doubt about it. It won't win overall Best Picture, but its all but guaranteed the win here.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock, Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
Les Misérables, Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

Prosthetic furry feet will likely mean a win for The Hobbit here. Les Misérables managed to uglify Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway, though, so it has a shot here.

Best Original Score
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John Williams
Skyfall, Thomas Newman

I hate betting against John Williams, but Life of Pi incorporated majestic symphonies with traditional Indian music. It was a great cultural score.

Best Original Song
“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice, music and lyric by J. Ralph
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted, music by Walter Murphy; lyric by Seth MacFarlane
“Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi, music by Mychael Danna; lyric by Bombay Jayashri
“Skyfall” from Skyfall, music and lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
“Suddenly” from Les Misérables, music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Who would bet against Adele? Not this girl.

Best Production Design
Anna Karenina, Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
Les Misérables, Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
Life of Pi, Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
Lincoln, Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Anna Karenina had one of the most unique sets out there, with almost the entire movie taking place in a theater in the round. It may not necessarily have worked for the movie as a whole, but it was certainly memorable.

Best Animated Short
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”
Paperman

It's adorable. Watch it.

Best Live Action Short
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

Another pick based on stats.

Best Sound Editing
Argo, Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn
Django Unchained, Wylie Stateman
Life of Pi, Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
Skyfall, Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
Zero Dark Thirty, Paul N.J. Ottosson

I always mix up Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, but Zero Dark Thirty is leading here.

Best Sound Mixing
Argo, John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
Les Misérables, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
Life of Pi, Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
Lincoln, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
Skyfall, Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson

Les Misérables managed to film all of the singing live--an incredible feat for a modern musical.

Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
Life of Pi, Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
The Avengers, Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
Prometheus, Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
Snow White and the Huntsman, Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson

Again, it's visually stunning.

And there you have it folks! Get your ballots ready, good luck, and enjoy the show!